Welcome to the home of HOOF Race Ratings. Our old website can still be viewed here, for a limited time, but all up-to-date information can be found here on the new site.
HOOF Race Ratings are designed for a statistics-grounded value approach to National Hunt horse racing in the UK. Unlike conventional race ratings, they offer the backer an authoritative guide to both form and value. The program which generates the ratings uses Bayes’ theorem to calculate each horse’s chance of winning. The resulting figures are then recalculated to give an edge in the backer’s favour. Hence the acronym: Horserace Optimum Odds Forecast.
The HOOF race ratings service publishes accurate, innovative, and informative race ratings, with the emphasis placed firmly on finding good value. We have been on the Internet since the 1995-96 NH season, initially as a free service, and latterly by subscription. The success of the race ratings and the integrity of the service means that we have stood our ground with a small but loyal nucleus of satisfied users.
The history behind HOOF Race Ratings
System B Results for November 2012 (normalised to a £10 level stake)
Total matched bets 201 Winners 29 Expected winners 19.03 Strike rate for matched bets 14.43% Gross profit 721.90 Gross % return on investment* 48.13% Percentage profit on turnover 36.04% Average level matched 10.56 Average level winners 9.4 Betfair commission @ 5% 121.75 Betfair commission % of gross 16.86% Net profit to 10 GBP 600.15 Net % return on investment* 40.01% Number of races 127 Winning race strike-rate 21.74% * ROI figures assume a 150-point bank
System B Results for December 2012 (normalised to a £10 level stake)
Total matched bets 200 Winners 23 Expected winners 19.98 Strike rate for matched bets 11.50% Gross profit -172.76 Gross % return on investment -11.52% Percentage profit on turnover - 8.65% Average level matched 10.01 Average level winners 7.94 Betfair commission @ 5% 79.76 Betfair commission % of gross -46.17 Net profit to 10 GBP -252.52 Net % return on investment* -16.83% Number of races 137 Winning race strike-rate 16.79% Frankly, a disappointing month, but given the atrocious weather and the number of abandoned meetings, perhaps not unsurprising.
System B Results for January 2013 (normalised to a £10 level stake)
Total matched bets 124 Winners 9 Expected winners 11.57 Strike rate for matched bets 7.26% Gross profit -564.88 Gross % return on investment -37.66% Percentage profit on turnover -45.69% Average level matched 10.71 Average level winners 7.46 Betfair commission @ 5% 29.07 Betfair commission % of gross - 5.15% Net profit to 10 GBP -593.95 Net % return on investment* -39.60% Number of races 83 Winning race strike-rate 10.84% Another poor month, almost certainly due to the appalling weather and the consequent disruption of the racing programme. The strike rate was too bad to be true, the average over the course of last season being in excess of 13%. The number of winning races is also half of the expected.
System B Results for February 2013 (normalised to a £10 level stake)
Total matched bets 138 Winners 21 Expected winners 13.33 Strike rate for matched bets 15.22% Gross profit 410.30 Gross % return on investment 27.35% Percentage profit on turnover -29.73% Average level matched 10.35 Average level winners 8.53 Betfair commission @ 5% 79.01 Betfair commission % of gross 19.26% Net profit to 10 GBP 331.29 Net % return on investment* 22.09% Number of races 83 Winning race strike-rate 10.84% The improvement in the weather and a dramatic reduction in the number of abandoned meetings produced an immediate improvement in results. I'm more than hopeful that it will be possible to build on this turnaround.
System B Results for March 2013 (normalised to a £10 level stake)
Total matched bets 199 Winners 21 Expected winners 19.22 Strike rate for matched bets 10.55% Gross profit -391.71 Gross % return on investment -26.11% Percentage profit on turnover -20.11% Average level matched 10.36 Average level winners 7.45 Betfair commission @ 5% 67.74 Betfair commission % of gross -17.29% Net profit to 10 GBP -459.45 Net % return on investment* -30.63% Number of races 131 Winning race strike-rate 16.03% Dreadful numbers, no doubt due to further disruption caused by the unprecedented weather. This seems reasonable because the figures for April, which are not yet complete, have seen a dramatic change of fortune.
