Welcome to HOOF National Hunt Race Ratings

Welcome to the home of HOOF National Hunt Race Ratings.

HOOF National Hunt Race Ratings are designed as a statistics-grounded value approach to horse racing over jumps in the UK. Unlike conventional race ratings, they offer the backer an authoritative guide to both form and value. The program which generates the ratings uses Bayes’ theorem to calculate each horse’s chance of winning. The resulting figures are then recalculated to give an edge in the backer’s favour. Hence the acronym: Horserace Optimum Odds Forecast.

The HOOF  National Hunt race ratings service publishes accurate, innovative, and informative race ratings, with the emphasis placed firmly on finding good value. We have been on the Internet since the 1995-96 NH season, initially as a free service, and latterly by subscription.  The success of the race ratings and the integrity of the service means that we have stood our ground with a small but loyal nucleus of satisfied users.

DATA UPDATE

Using the archive spreadsheet for 2018-19 I have updated the blogroll with the results for top-rated and second top-rated horses from 1st November 2018 to 30th April 2019.


LATEST NEWS: FREE DATA ARCHIVE UPDATED FOR 21-22

The results for November 2021-April 2022 have been processed and the archive for 2021-22 has been updated thanks to sterling work by Martin Kilgariff of Patternform.

The archive consists of 9 spreadsheets giving results for the HOOF ratings campaigns (November-April inclusive) over preceding seasons.

With a little spreadsheet ability, the archive can be used to develop profitable approaches to the use of the ratings.

I have added a pivot table to the file for 2021-22 to make it easier to analyse the performance of the ratings in various categories – hurdles and chases, handicaps and conditions (non-handicap) races.

The file is in .xlsx format and can be read using Libre Office.

The results are quite interesting.

The top-rated horse backed blindly gave: 728/2420 with a hit-rate of 29.98% producing a level-stake loss of 22.72 at -0.94% yield.

This is better than some of the flagship ratings services.

Applying a simple rule involving a cap on field size of 12 runners gave: 682/2186 with a hit-rate of 31.2% producing a level-stake profit of 18.83 points at 0.86% yield.

Excluding mares and backing geldings gave: 578/1807 with a hit-rate of 31.99% producing a level-stake profit of 68.13 points at 3.77% yield.

There are all sorts of further analyses that can be done to improve the performance of the ratings.

2022-2023 SEASON RESUMES

Publication of the ratings returns on 1st November.  The latest additions to the knowledge base have been beta-tested since the end of August with promising results.

The history behind HOOF National Hunt Race Ratings