Welcome to HOOF National Hunt Race Ratings

Welcome to the home of HOOF National Hunt Race Ratings.

HOOF National Hunt Race Ratings are designed as a statistics-grounded value approach to horse racing over jumps in the UK. Unlike conventional race ratings, they offer the backer an authoritative guide to both form and value. The program which generates the ratings uses Bayes’ theorem to calculate each horse’s chance of winning. The resulting figures are then recalculated to give an edge in the backer’s favour. Hence the acronym: Horserace Optimum Odds Forecast.

The HOOF  National Hunt race ratings service publishes accurate, innovative, and informative race ratings, with the emphasis placed firmly on finding good value. We have been on the Internet since the 1995-96 NH season, initially as a free service, and latterly by subscription.  The success of the race ratings and the integrity of the service means that we have stood our ground with a small but loyal nucleus of satisfied users.

DATA UPDATE

Using the archive spreadsheet for 2018-19 I have updated the blogroll with the results for top-rated and second top-rated horses from 1st November 2018 to 30th April 2019.


LATEST NEWS: FREE DATA ARCHIVE HAS BEEN UPDATED

The results for November 2020-April 2021 have been processed and the archive for 2020-21 has been updated thanks to sterling work by Martin Kilgariff of Patternform.

The archive consists of 9 spreadsheets giving results for the HOOF ratings campaigns (November-April inclusive) over preceding seasons.

With a little spreadsheet ability, the archive can be used to develop profitable approaches to the use of the ratings.

I have added a pivot table to the file for 2020-21 to make it easier to analyse the performance of the ratings in various categories – hurdles and chases, handicaps and conditions (non-handicap) races.
The file is in .xlsx format and can be read using Libre Office.

HOOF RACE RATINGS RETURN FOR THE 2021-22 SEASON

Due to Covid-19, the times we live in are uncertain.  As of today, 1st October, I am working on the assumption that racing will take place from November through until April.  On that basis, a normal service at normal rates will operate.

Naturally, if racing is called off due to lockdown measures for a significant period, all subscribers will receceive a rebate. pro rata.

Publication of the ratings will resume after the customary summer break, on 1st November. The cost of a full season’s subscription remains unchanged at £99 with reductions pro rata for late subscriptions. The weekend, bank holiday and major meetings service costs £66.

If you would like to subscribe, please let me know by email of your intention. You will be placed without delay on the distribution list pending receipt of your remittance.

THIS WEEK’S TOP-RATED VALUE* WINNERS (Betfair SP)

Monday 03 Jan
Blank
Tuesday 04 Jan
Representing Bob 3.65
Findthetime 4.13

Wednesday 05 Jan
Gaia Vallis (jt) 11.94
Fairlawn Flyer 8.03

Thursday 30 Dec
Blaklion 4.08
Karakoram 13.5
Tip Top Cat 3.94

Friday 31 Dec
Love Envoi 2.4

Saturday 01 Jan
L’Homme Pressé 2.89
Vienna Court 13.44
Stormy Ireland 5.6 (lucky)
Le Milos 10.59
Pitempton Power 3.15
Rapper 4

Sunday 02 Jan
Wakool 4.3

* Value winners are those with a positive expected value, i.e. the odds offered are greater than the horse’s true odds as calculated by the HOOF ratings program.  Short-priced favourites not included.  Non-runners accounted for.

The history behind HOOF National Hunt Race Ratings